Growth isn’t a luxury; it’s a lifeline we can’t afford to ignore

In this instalment of the Growth in Focus series, futurist and economist Bronwyn Williams speaks to Professor Adrian Saville, a professor in economics, finance and strategy at the Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) and the Rotman School of Management. 

Adrian also works with a consulting firm called Boundless World, which helps businesses determine how to grow and then designs business models tailored to their specific needs. It's no surprise, then, that Bronwyn and Adrian discuss South Africa's economic potential, including both the opportunities and the obstacles.  

Is SA working on its Saville Six Pack? 

Known as the Six-Factor Model (or the Saville Six Pack), Adrian’s research draws on 60 years of data from 160 countries, identifying the key factors that drive economic development and growth. 

“When we set out on this work, we dropped all assumptions. And we had access to a magnificent big body of data, 160 countries, 60 years of data, 1 200-line items per country. And those line items range from everything like life expectancy, infant mortality, number of doctors and nurses per 1 000 population, all the way through to the strength of political institutions and income per person.”

The six pillars are: 

1. High levels of savings and investment
   High and sustained domestic saving that funds productive investment are the most critical to economic growth. 
2. Quality education 
   Broadening access to education builds human capital and supports higher long-term growth outcomes. 
3. Access to quality healthcare 
   Healthier and medical care underpins human productivity, longevity, and socio-economic wellbeing. 
4. Favourable demographic structure
   Economies benefit when a growing share of the population is of working age, a factor reliant on healthcare and education. 
5. Openness
   Flows of goods, services, capital, people, and ideas across borders (and within countries) are strongly linked to higher economic growth. 
6. Strong institutions and policies
   Consistent, credible policy supported by strong institutions (including monetary, fiscal, regulatory, and governance quality) is vital. 

"No country has become prosperous by building walls," Saville emphasised, stressing the importance of openness. Yet, South Africa’s "gap" lies in savings and investment. "We do not have a financial environment that is inclusive... Many argue you must be rich to save; this is nonsense. Every rich country was once poor." 

“Growth is not about getting more of what you have but taking ourselves to a future that is better for all."

Prof. Adrian Saville, Professor at the Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) and the Rotman School of Management. 

Our incomes haven’t really grown since 2010

While policymakers aim for 5.4% growth, structural growth has fallen to "about 1.5%," matching population growth and trapping incomes at 2010 levels. "We are in a per capita income trap... falling behind not just rich economies but other middle-income countries. Our incomes per person are the same size today as they were in 2010. That’s 14 years without growth," Adrian warns. Exports tell a similar story. South Africa’s global export share has declined from 2% in the 1980s to 0.5% today, with commodities dominating, indicating that South Africa has not industrialised sufficiently.

South Africa’s global export share has declined from 2% in the 1980s to 0.5% today, with commodities dominating, indicating that South Africa has not industrialised sufficiently.  

Do quick fixes exist?  

Adrian acknowledges South Africa’s strengths, such as sound demographics and world-class policies, but criticises their execution. Healthcare and education spending, though high, offer poor outcomes. "The most important place for impact in education is the first 1 000 days [of a child’s life].

If you get those wrong, it’s hard to fix the next 10 000." For immediate gains, he urged a shift from consumerism to savings, citing models like  Bangladesh’s Grameen Bank, which lends exclusively to women for productive purposes (business, education or home improvement). "Design models that are good for society first, then business. That’s where sustainability comes from."  

Optimism amid challenges 

Adrian’s optimism is rooted in the belief that South Africans themselves hold the key to unlocking the country’s full potential. 

"I’m hard-pressed to find more exciting and purposeful places to be... Our country presents problems to fix, but also incredible opportunities."  

Enabling more entrepreneurs to thrive is fundamental to unlocking South Africa's economic potential and addressing its persistent unemployment crisis. With youth unemployment exceeding 46%, fostering entrepreneurship offers a vital pathway to job creation, as small and medium enterprises already account for the majority of employment in the country. By strengthening business support networks, South Africa can unleash the innovative capacity of its citizens to develop solutions tailored to local challenges—from township enterprises addressing community needs to tech startups competing globally.  

Elegant Cookware, a local business, is another example of society-first thinking. The company sells a bespoke range of cookware specifically designed for customers in rural areas with limited access to stores. 

The Elegant Cookware team goes where the customers are and utilises Point of Sale terminals supported by Altron FinTech. These terminals offer compliant DebiCheck-validated debit order payments, protecting customers and simplifying Elegant Cookware’s cash flow management which allows them to grow sustainably. 

Successful entrepreneurs like Siyanda Zindlani become role models in their communities, inspiring others and creating a multiplier effect that transforms economic participation from job-seeking to job-creating, ultimately building a more inclusive and dynamic economy that can sustainably lift millions out of poverty. 

Saville stresses that growth must be "inclusive, transformative and sustainable."

"Growth is not about getting more of what you have, but creating a better future for all... South Africa has abundant opportunities if we design solutions fit for purpose." 

What this means for growth

South Africa’s path to prosperity isn’t a mystery - it’s a matter of execution. The Saville Six Pack offers a data-backed blueprint for inclusive, transformative, and sustainable growth. But the real power lies in how we apply it. From shifting mindsets around savings to designing business models that serve society first, the opportunity is ours to seize.

As Adrian Saville reminds us, growth isn’t about more of the same - it’s about building a better future. And that future starts with bold, purpose-driven action today.